6G set to reshape global mobile networks by 2030, says GSMA

6G will begin rolling out from 2030 and is set to transform global network demand, according to new analysis from the GSMA Intelligence unit

Early 6G deployments are expected in China, Japan, South Korea, the US, Europe, the GCC states, India and Vietnam. The GSMA forecasts more than five billion 6G connections by 2040, representingaround half of all mobile users worldwide.

However, 6G will not replace existing technologies overnight.

The GSMA expects 5G to support around three billion connections, and 4G roughly two billion, even in 2040. This points to a decade where operators will manage a complex multi-generation landscape, balancing investment across three dominant network standards.

The technology leap to 6G is expected to supercharge global data consumption. Mobile traffic is forecast to reach 1,700 to 3,900 exabytes per month by 2040, driven by a combination of richer video services, gaming, and new 6G-enhanced applications.

These include extended reality, real-time network sensing, and image- and video-driven generative AI, all of which will require far higher uplink capacity and much lower latency.

Behavioural shift

Markets with strong 5G take-up already show the direction of travel. In countries where 5G accounted for at least 30 per cent of broadband connections in 2024, data consumption was 2.5 times higher than in markets where 5G penetration remained below 10 per cent.

The GSMA notes that even if emerging 6G use cases remain niche in the early years, demand will continue to rise as more users migrate to faster networks and adopt higher-bandwidth services.

A major behavioural shift will also shape future network demand. Today, around 10 per cent of mobile users generate 60 per cent to 70 per cent of total traffic. By 2040, the GSMA expects these so-called “power-user” consumption levels to become mainstream, driven by younger generations who already rely heavily on high-bandwidth applications.

Spectrum will be another critical challenge. Many anticipated 6G services, such as immersive communications, digital twins and network-assisted mobility, will require latencies below 10 milliseconds, as well as high reliability and wide channels to avoid congestion.

Traffic distribution will further complicate planning: in a sample of 10 countries, 83 per cent of all mobile traffic occurred in urban areas, which reresent just five per cent of land area.

With 6G on the horizon, the GSMA warns the industry must begin preparing now. The 2030s will bring unprecedented uplink demand, denser urban networks and a dramatic shift in user behavioursetting the stage for the most significant transformation in mobile connectivity since the arrival 4G.