MVNOs will capture a third of UK mobile market in five years – FDM CCS Insight

Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) will take more than 30 per cent of the UK consumer mobile market by 2031, according to new research from FDM CCS Insight.

The analyst firm predicts low-cost providers and digital-first brands will continue to attract customers away from the UK’s four legacy network operators.

MVNO connections, excluding operator-owned brands such as giffgaff (Telefónica) and Voxi (Vodafone), will grow by 51 per cent between the start of 2026 and the end of 2031. Their share of the UK mobile market is expected to rise from around 23 per cent today to more than 30 per cent, excluding machine-to-machine connections.

The report also reckons UK MVNO service revenue will almost double to more than £4.5 billion by 2031, despite average revenue per user remaining significantly below that of the host network operators.

Much of the next wave of growth will come from digital brands entering the mobile market through eSIM-based services integrated into their existing apps. Fintechs, retailers and consumer brands are increasingly launching mobile offers using platforms from companies such as Gigs and 1Global, creating new customer acquisition models without building traditional telecoms infrastructure.

These digital-first providers will account for more than three million UK customers by 2031, representing around 11 per cent of the MVNO market.

Kester Mann, Director of Consumer and Connectivity at FDM CCS Insight, said the trend presents a mixed picture for network operators.

“MVNOs generate valuable wholesale revenue for operators, but they also intensify retail competition and make it harder for the major networks to grow,” he said.

Operator-owned brands will help defend market share, but CCS Insight expects operators to continue losing retail customers over the coming years.

However, the rapid growth of MVNOs will eventually slow as operators take a tougher approach to wholesale negotiations.

“Operators still control access to the networks. That gives them significant influence over the long-term growth potential of MVNOs and is likely to place a ceiling on their market share,” he said.